Nintendo Switch 2 Sales Forecast: Toyo Securities Analyst Predicts 20 Million Units in First Year

Nintendo Switch 2 Sales Forecast: Toyo Securities Analyst Predicts 20 Million Units in First Year The gaming industry is abuzz as Nintendo prepares for the launch of its highly anticipated next-generation console, the Nintendo Switch 2.

Following the tremendous global success of the original Nintendo Switch, analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring the company’s projections and market performance.

Hideki Yasuda, a prominent analyst at Toyo Securities, recently released a detailed report expressing strong confidence in Nintendo’s outlook for the Switch 2. Nintendo’s own guidance indicates that it expects to ship approximately 15 million Nintendo Switch 2 units during the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026.

However, Yasuda’s analysis suggests that this figure may significantly underestimate the true level of consumer demand.

In his report, Yasuda states that sales could reach 20 million units in the first year alone, surpassing official targets by a substantial margin.

Looking further ahead, he projects annual sales of 30 million consoles in the fiscal year concluding March 2028. Financially, Yasuda anticipates that Switch 2-driven revenue will be transformative for Nintendo.

He forecasts sales revenue to hit 2 trillion yen (approximately USD 13.7 billion) in the initial fiscal year following launch.

By the fiscal year ending in March 2028, Yasuda’s projections point to total revenues escalating to 3 trillion yen (roughly USD 20.6 billion). According to Yasuda, these bullish predictions are rooted in measurable indicators of demand.

In particular, he cited the overwhelming response to the My Nintendo Store Japan’s pre-order lottery for the Switch 2.

The campaign registered a record-breaking 2.2 million entries during its first round.

This figure dwarfs the number of consoles shipped at launch by both Nintendo and PlayStation in prior Japanese hardware rollouts, signaling exceptionally strong early consumer interest. Yasuda’s outlook stands out as one of the most optimistic among industry watchers, and reflects both the enduring popularity of the Nintendo brand and the strength of the company’s hardware platform strategy.

Nintendo has consistently demonstrated an ability to captivate gamers with innovative devices and compelling software libraries, and the Switch 2 appears poised to continue this legacy. As anticipation builds, industry observers will be keenly following Nintendo’s official announcements, sales updates, and future Nintendo Direct presentations for further details on the Switch 2’s release schedule, launch titles, and ongoing sales performance.

For now, with record-setting pre-order demand and positive analyst sentiment, the Nintendo Switch 2 is shaping up to be one of the most impactful hardware launches in the company’s storied history.

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