Nintendo Switch 2 Projected to Sell Six Million Units in First Quarter, Says Analyst

Nintendo Switch 2 Projected to Sell Six Million Units in First Quarter, Says Analyst As the Nintendo Switch approaches its ninth anniversary and records an astounding 150 million units sold, industry eyes are now fixed on its highly anticipated successor—the rumored Nintendo Switch 2.

With the Switch now ranking as the third best-selling console of all time, questions abound regarding whether Nintendo can sustain its historic momentum with the next hardware iteration.

While some analysts predict more modest numbers for the Switch 2, new forecasts from Japanese financial experts paint a picture of a launch poised for extraordinary success. In a recent analysis shared on Japanese GamesIndustry.biz and reported by Tech4Gamers, Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda outlined his expectations for the Nintendo Switch 2's launch performance.

Yasuda projects that the new system could move as many as six million units in its initial quarter—specifically the second quarter of Nintendo's 2025/26 fiscal year, assuming a July release.

As Yasuda wrote, achieving these figures would represent a significant milestone and could 'dispel the prevailing industry notion that consoles must launch during the year-end holiday season to secure strong sales.' Yasuda bases his bullish outlook on observable trends in Nintendo's hardware production and inventory management.

Notably, he points to a strategic inventory increase by Nintendo during the third quarter of its fiscal year—a period when supply often tapers off following holiday sales.

This inventory build-up, Yasuda suggests, reflects the company's preparations for a major product launch, building ample stock for the highly anticipated hardware. By comparison, Sony's PlayStation 5 production reportedly began five months before its November release, resulting in 4.5 million units sold in its first quarter.

Yasuda believes that the Switch 2's production cycle is even longer, which could enable Nintendo to surpass that benchmark.

With significantly increased inventory landing six months before the anticipated Switch 2 launch, Yasuda contends that Nintendo is setting the stage for a market surge that would potentially 'create an environment where PlayStation cannot close the gap domestically or worldwide.' The original Nintendo Switch launched on March 3, 2017, achieving 2.74 million units sold in its first quarter, with a further 1.97 million units in the following period.

However, the initial launch suffered from limited supply, a scenario both consumers and retailers hope to avoid with the next release.

Nintendo’s apparent focus on stockpiling hardware points to intentions to prevent shortages and maximize initial sales. As anticipation for the Switch 2 intensifies, sales projections such as Yasuda's—six million units out of the gate with a summer launch—would not only surpass the company’s own launch history but challenge prevailing assumptions about the best season to debut new consoles.

While consumers and analysts await official word from Nintendo, it is clear the gaming landscape is set for another transformative year, with competition from Sony’s future PlayStation 6 also looming on the horizon. Nintendo has yet to announce a specific release date, pricing, or software lineup for the Switch 2.

Nonetheless, industry analysts, retail partners, and the gaming public are closely monitoring Nintendo Direct presentations and financial disclosures for further details. Stay tuned for more Nintendo Switch 2 updates as the gaming giant readies its next big leap in the console market.

Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Switch Nintendo Switch 2 Switch Hideki Yasuda Toyo Securities