Switch 2 Sales Forecast: Circana Analyst Predicts 4.3 Million Units in US Within Launch Year

As anticipation builds for Nintendo’s next-generation console, widely referred to as the 'Switch 2,' industry analysts are weighing in with their projections for how the system will fare in the competitive gaming market.

According to Circana (formerly NPD Group) analyst Mat Piscatella, initial sales for the Nintendo Switch successor could reach 4.3 million units in the United States in its first year, should the device launch in the first half of 2025.

This sales estimate highlights both the high demand expected for the hotly anticipated hardware as well as challenges Nintendo may face in keeping up with consumer interest. Piscatella, whose research and commentary are respected across the gaming industry, shared his insights on social media platform Bluesky, as reported by Push Square.

He emphasized that while the release of a new Nintendo console always attracts considerable attention, supply limitations following a strong launch could impede sales momentum.

"We anticipate Nintendo will see robust day-one demand for the Switch 2, but ongoing hardware constraints may temper total unit sales during the remainder of the year," Piscatella noted in a paraphrased statement. In the same analysis, Piscatella remarked that Sony’s PlayStation 5 is likely to outsell the Switch 2 in the US throughout 2025.

This projection reflects the PlayStation 5’s continued availability and established market presence, bolstered by occasional discounts and time-tested demand.

The Nintendo Switch 2, on the other hand, would be entering the market fresh, contending with the perennial challenge of meeting the surging appetite of early adopters and long-time Nintendo fans. Piscatella’s forecast presents a notably different perspective compared to predictions from DFC Intelligence.

The latter research firm recently described the Nintendo Switch 2 as the potential “clear winner” of the upcoming console generation, suggesting global first-year sales could exceed 17 million units.

However, it is crucial to note that Piscatella’s estimate pertains exclusively to the US market, making the global sales outcome potentially far higher if historical trends repeat.

For context, the original Nintendo Switch shipped just under 15 million units worldwide by the end of 2017, following its launch in March of that year. Nintendo has yet to provide an official announcement or release window for the Switch 2, sparking extensive speculation from both fans and industry observers.

But if these sales projections are accurate, the Switch 2 stands poised to make a significant impact in the US market—and perhaps globally—if Nintendo can effectively manage launch supply and capitalize on pent-up demand. As details regarding the Nintendo Switch 2 emerge, industry stakeholders and gaming enthusiasts alike will be watching closely to see how the next chapter in Nintendo’s hardware legacy unfolds.

Stay tuned for more updates as official information becomes available.

Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Switch 2 Switch US Circana Xbox Series X|S Mat Piscatella